CIHT FUTURES explores the implications of different future scenarios for transport policy and practice. It engaged members around the UK, drawing on the diversity of their geographical, professional and personal characteristics.
For more about the CIHT FUTURES project, and to contribute directly, please browse the linked pages, or contact the project team.
Watch and listen to Glenn Lyons, Professor of Transport & Society at UWE Bristol, discuss various future scenarios and introduce two alternative pathways of decision making.
The first is called regime-compliant. This pathway involves elements including: prediction; weak planning; cost-benefit analysis; and a focus on transport as the principal enabler and consequence of economic prosperity.
The second is called regime-testing. This pathway involves elements including: scenario planning; strong planning; real options analysis; and a focus on multiple enablers of economic, social and environmental prosperity.
Related material
Scenario planning
There is a large body of scenario planning material online – these links are just a few brief examples:
Future demand (Ministry of Transport, New Zealand) - a strategic transport policy programme project, led by Professor Glenn Lyons, which examined future uncertainty out to 2042 and considered implications for how policymaking and investment decisions are informed and shaped
Horizon Scan – a 2015 report by pteg on how major UK city-regions can respond and adapt to the major changes affecting transport now and in future. Covers demographics, technology and devoution amongst other topics also address by our own project
The Future of Transport (Future Agenda) – work by Professor Glenn Lyons which uses five ‘P’ categories (predicted, plausible, presumed, preferred, practical) to help understand expectations of the future
Have we fallen out of love with the car permanently? - by Richard Westcott, BBC Transport Correspondent. The article concludes with the observation: 'it seems ridiculous to try to predict 50 years into the future based on the word we live in today'.
Beyond Traffic: US DOT's 30 Year Framework for the Future - is an invitation to the American public—including the users, developers, owners, and operators of the transportation network and the policy officials who shape it—to have a frank conversation about the shape, size, and condition of that system and how it will meet the needs and goals of our nation for decades to come.
Are you aware of useful material relevant to the project? If so, please let us know – we don’t know everything about the future!
