There will be no hydrogen cars or vans, and very little or potentially even no role for hydrogen in heavier vehicles. 

Electric cars and vans become cheaper than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by the late 2020s, both in terms of upfront and running costs.   

The changes in surface transport are cost saving for the country and households. 

The zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate is supporting the transition to EVs through legally binding targets on the share of cars and vans sold in the UK that must be zero-emission.  

The Balanced Pathway assumes that, under current vehicle price expectations and with a supportive policy landscape, sales exceed the minimum levels set by the mandate. 

Charging infrastructure will be critical to supporting rapid uptake of EVs.  

Along with continued roll-out, it will also be important to reduce the cost of charging and simplify payment methods. 

The Government needs to provide clarity on the phase-out date for ending the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles, which provides a backstop to the ZEV mandate.  

The Government’s intent to restore the phase-out date for new petrol and diesel cars to 2030 is welcome. The Government should also confirm the 2040 phase-out for new diesel HGVs, restore the 2030 date for vans, and consider including hybrid cars in the phase-out. 

The Government should work with major van fleet operators to better understand the barriers to electric van take-up, which is lagging, and quickly implement policies to overcome them.  

Financial support will be needed in the early years to stimulate uptake of electric HGVs and charging infrastructure. 

Local authorities will require funding and powers to deliver better public transport and walking and cycling infrastructure.  

These travel modes increase in our pathway, bringing the UK closer in line with countries such as Switzerland, Germany, and the Netherlands. 

• Implement regulations requiring that all new cars and vans sold after 2030 must be able to travel a significant distance using electrical power alone. Clarity on and effective implementation of phase-out dates for ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans is essential for the transition to EVs. Legislation will be required to establish ambitious targets for the ZEV mandate from 2031 to 2035 if hybrids are still allowed post 2030. 

• Improve the availability and reduce the cost of local public charging for drivers who do not have access to private off-street parking, to make local public charging more comparable to charging at home. 

• Develop a strategy to deliver the required charging infrastructure for heavy-duty vehicles, including HGVs and buses. This would give operators confidence to invest in new technologies. This should include guidance on establishing new grid connections, delays to which currently pose a significant barrier to ZEV uptake. This is especially relevant for the infrastructure and construction delivery sectors including construction and maintenance of highways. Currently lack of heavy-duty vehicle charging infrastructure is a barrier for contractors in decarbonising their vehicle fleet and construction plants.  

• Provide local authorities with long-term funding and powers to deliver increases in public transport, walking, and cycling. Long-term clarity is also needed on what funding streams will be available to implement plans and additional powers for local areas to deliver an integrated public transport offer. 

• Highlight the benefits of zero-emission vehicles. Government and industry should actively provide information on the benefits of EVs. Many consumers are unaware that EVs could already be cost saving for them on a lifetime basis (depending on annual distance driven, car type, and whether they have access to home charging) and are unaware how rapidly upfront EV prices are falling. They can also be unaware of the extent of charging availability and misinformed about battery longevity and EV lifecycle emissions.