By Tom Austin-Morgan

From severe flooding and heatwaves to shifting ground conditions, these issues – many directly caused by the impact of climate change – are already placing significant pressure on roads, railways, and other critical transport assets. The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), which recently published the resilience standards report in Sep 2024, is at the forefront of efforts to ensure the transport sector is prepared to meet these challenges head-on.

“The transport sector is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events,” explains Ed Beard, Assistant Director for the Environment, NIC. “Surface water flooding disrupts services, damages roads and vehicles, and even threatens embankments, leading to costly and prolonged repairs.

“Over the coming decades, heatwaves may surpass current engineering tolerances for UK rail infrastructure, while ground movement could affect the structural integrity of road and rail beds.”

The NIC estimates that around 85% of the UK's rail assets will still be in use by 2055. This highlights the importance of retrofitting and maintaining existing infrastructure to improve resilience. Road networks, too, face greater risks of pothole formation due to more intense storms and fluctuating temperatures.

Beyond direct impacts, the UK’s transition to a low-carbon, fully electrified transport system introduces additional challenges. 

“With transport accounting for a third of UK carbon emissions, the shift to electric vehicles and rail electrification must be accompanied by a resilient electricity sector,” Beard adds. “A failure in one system could cascade into others, amplifying disruptions.”

To mitigate these risks, the NIC has advised the government to introduce clear resilience standards. These would ensure that transport operators and regulators proactively invest in resilience measures before extreme weather events occur, rather than relying on reactive fixes.

Similarly, CIHT has called for adaptation and resilience to be made an immediate investment and policy priority across all governmental transport strategies in its October 2024 report - Delivering a resilient transport network.

“Resilience standards should serve two key purposes,” Beard states. “Setting clear expectations for service reliability under different scenarios and guiding operators on where to prioritise investment. 

“However, establishing these standards requires government leadership to define the appropriate level of resilience, balancing affordability with risk mitigation. Ultimately, the public will bear the cost of these measures through taxation and transport fares, making a national conversation on resilience essential.”

Identifying key risks and investment priorities

The NIC takes a long-term approach to infrastructure planning, assessing potential climate risks and working with a wide range of stakeholders, including policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, and environmental experts.

Beard explains: “Through extensive engagement, the Commission has identified a major gap: the lack of a forward-looking asset health measures. This would provide a clearer picture of how transport infrastructure is aging in the face of climate change, helping to anticipate failures and improve long-term planning.”

While the NIC has not proposed a dedicated transport resilience fund, it has recommended that future road and rail investments prioritise maintenance and upgrades to existing networks rather than focusing solely on new infrastructure. It claims this approach will ensure that transport assets can operate effectively despite evolving climate threats.

Beard says the NIC is pushing for a more integrated, data-driven approach to strategic transport planning. He says: “By aligning maintenance schedules with climate projections and taking a whole-life cost approach to infrastructure investment, the UK can strengthen its transport networks against future climate shocks.”

It is hoped the first round of resilience standards will be developed some time this year, after the NIC initially rebuffed the government’s initial target of 2030, setting the foundation for a more robust and adaptable transport system. Although Beard says at the very earliest, they will be discussed in June 2025.

“We need to get on with it,” Beard concludes. “By implementing forward-thinking policies and targeted investments, the UK can ensure that its transport sector remains resilient, sustainable, and capable of withstanding the increasing pressures of climate change.”

Image: River Severn after Storm Dennis in Shropshire, United Kingdom; credit: Shutterstock.