By Tom Austin-Morgan

The ‘predict and provide’ model used in transport planning which was forecast-led, responding to problems or opportunities and ultimately trying to improve by anticipating how demand is changing over time to inform investment decisions on transport supply, is set to change.

This transport-focused system emphasised a demand-led supply whereby planners predict, for example, the amount of traffic there will be in the future and build more or wider roads to accommodate the predicted increase in traffic.

“We don’t live in a transport system,” counters Glenn Lyons, CIHT President. “We live in a triple access system.”

Triple access planning (TAP) incorporates a ‘decide and provide’ model, which is vision-led and access-focused rather than transport-focused and, because the future is notoriously hard to predict, it accommodates uncertainty. 

This model considers not only physical mobility, such as the transportation system, but also spatial proximity (land-use planning) and digital connectivity (telecommunication systems). It considers a possible set of scenarios and puts in place measures that work well regardless of what the future holds. 

“TAP helps planners design in a way that reflects how we live our lives,” Lyons explains. “For example, promoting more walking and cycling will cope better with a variety of futures compared to building a new railway or adding capacity to the highway system.”

Image: Glenn Lyons with the Triple Access Planning for Uncertain Futures – A Handbook for Practitioners handbook; credit: CIHT

More than just transport

TAP is not a policy position on access, but a planning process and Lyons says it enables a way of seeing a broader sphere of ways that planners could shape society with less reliance on infrastructure investment.

“TAP is not pretending to offer a quick fix, easy alternative to transport planning. However, given the world we’re seeing changing around us, we need a more fit for purpose approach to planning than traditional forecast-led approaches,” he says.

Lyons adds he would like to see future transport planning being less dependent on motorised mobility with more walking and cycling, creating a sense of community which, in turn, would improve public health due to more exercise, cleaner air and support networks.

TAP is already gaining traction in some areas. In Scotland, with its target (‘decide’) to reduce the number of car kilometres by 20% by the end of 2030, a roadmap has been published that is intended to ‘provide’ a means for getting to that target. This investment is in digital connectivity and local facilities as well as transport.

Similarly, the Wales Road Review announced a targeted reduction of car kilometres per person of 10% by 2030 alongside an aim for 30% of people to be regularly working remotely.

Though TAP may not be mainstream yet, it’s already being embraced by some early adopters, and many believe it will eventually become the mainstream.

Download Triple Access Planning for Uncertain Futures – A Handbook for Practitioners.

Newsletter image: walking and cycling across London Bridge in rush hour; credit: Shutterstock.